Scoring Methodology

CalDoughnut Score evaluates California legislation against the Doughnut Economics framework developed by Kate Raworth and applied to California by the California Doughnut Economics Coalition (CalDEC).

The Framework

The doughnut has two boundaries: a social foundation (12 categories, 24 indicators) below which no one should fall, and an ecological ceiling (9 categories, 18 indicators) above which we should not go. The space between is the “safe and just space” where all life can thrive.

California falls short on 100% of social indicators and overshoots 89% of ecological boundaries.

The Core Metric: Shortfall & Overshoot Change

For each indicator, CalDEC has measured California's current value and defined a desirable target (the boundary threshold). The gap between current and target is the shortfall (for social indicators) or overshoot (for ecological indicators), expressed as a percentage.

  • Shortfall % (social): How far below the social foundation threshold California falls. A bill that reduces shortfall is moving California toward the safe space.
  • Overshoot % (ecological): How far beyond the planetary boundary California has gone. A bill that reduces overshoot is pulling California back within ecological limits.

Our primary output for each bill is the projected change in shortfall or overshoot percentage points for every affected indicator. A negative change (e.g., -2.8pp) means improvement — California moves closer to the safe and just space.

Analysis Pipeline

Phase 1: Triage & Category Detection

A fast AI model analyzes each bill's title, summary, and subject tags to determine:

  • Which of the 21 doughnut categories the bill substantively impacts (most bills impact 2-5)
  • How complex the analysis will be (simple / moderate / complex)
  • Whether the bill has zero doughnut impact (procedural, commemorative bills)

Phase 2a: Standard Analysis (Simple/Moderate Bills)

For each relevant category, an AI model analyzes the bill using the full bill text, CalDEC indicator definitions with current California values and desirable targets, and data source citations. The model estimates how the bill would change each indicator's value and computes the resulting shortfall/overshoot change.

Phase 2b: Research-Augmented Analysis (Complex Bills)

For complex bills (omnibus, cross-cutting), the system first searches for relevant academic papers and policy research, then feeds this evidence into a more capable AI model for deeper analysis grounded in empirical findings.

What We Produce for Each Bill

For each impacted category and its indicators, the system produces:

  • Direction: Does the bill help (reduce shortfall/overshoot), hurt (increase it), or have mixed effects?
  • Per-indicator shortfall/overshoot change: Projected change in percentage points, with low/mid/high estimates expressing uncertainty
  • Evidence-based reasoning: Detailed chain-of-thought analysis citing specific research
  • Research citations: Academic papers and policy reports supporting the assessment
  • Fiscal impact estimates: Projected annual costs (low/mid/high) when the bill has meaningful budget implications

Visualization

Bills are visualized using a mini doughnut ring showing which of the 21 categories are affected and in which direction. The ring has two concentric bands — the inner ring represents the 12 social foundation categories and the outer ring represents the 9 ecological ceiling categories. Affected categories are color-coded: green for improvement (reduces shortfall/overshoot), red for worsening, and orange for mixed effects. The intensity reflects the magnitude of the shortfall/overshoot change.

On each bill's detail page, you can expand any category to see full per-indicator impact bars showing the current shortfall/overshoot, the projected value after the bill, and the change — along with reasoning, evidence, and citations.

Quantitative Impact Estimates

Like CBO fiscal scores, we provide concrete projected changes for each indicator. These estimates reference comparable policies from other jurisdictions, account for California's specific context, and honestly express uncertainty with low/mid/high ranges.

This enables “doughnut budget” analysis: summing up the projected impact of all passed legislation to see how the session moves California's doughnut metrics.

Transparency

Every analysis includes full reasoning, evidence citations with links, and shortfall/overshoot calculations you can verify. All LLM calls are logged with model, tokens, cost, and latency. Scoring versions are tracked so methodology changes are transparent and reproducible.

Limitations

  • AI analysis is inherently imprecise — treat shortfall/overshoot projections as informed estimates, not definitive predictions
  • Quantitative impact estimates are based on comparable policies from other jurisdictions, not deterministic models
  • Bills may have indirect effects not captured by the 42 indicators
  • Implementation quality matters — a bill's actual impact depends on how it's executed
  • The analysis system will improve over time as we calibrate against human expert review